Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
